LDs now down ten seats on the Commons spread markets since the campaign started
GE2017 seat spreads from @SportingIndex .
CON 396-401
LAB 152-158
LD 16-19
UKIP 0.1-1
GRN 1-2
SNP 44-47
https://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 … … … …— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2017
Latest Spreadex Commons seats spreads
CON 395-41
LAB 152-158
LD 16-19
UKIP 0.1-1
GRN 0.75-1.75
SNP 44-47https://t.co/m9B2DFvQv3 … … … …— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2017
The biggest loser on the betting markets since the election was called have been the Lib Dems. The opening prices were at 26 to 29 seats following the widespread assumption that the party would be in a position to appeal to remain voters from either Labour or the Conservatives.
Even last Thursday, local election day, the Lib Dems were on 24 SELL and 27 BUY. Although they put on votes on that day they saw a net loss of seats which has prompted a mass selling.
With both SpreadEx and Sporting Index they are now at 16-19 seats.
You can see a situation on June 8th where the party increases its vote share substantially from GE2015 but struggles to achieve seat gains.
I am waiting until we know what has happened with the Crown Prosecution Service which is considering bringing charges against GE2015 CON agents and candidates following the CON expenses investigation.
If this happens it will have a big impact in the seats concerned most of which were previously Lib Dem.