New @OpiniumResearch

Con 45 (+7) Lab 26 (-3) LD 11 (+4) UKIP 9 (-5)

Changes since last week. FW 19/20 Aprilhttps://t.co/JDBaJ9a0K2

— TSE (@TSEofPB) April 22, 2017

Since Theresa May announced the general election, we’ve had three polls, with leads of 21%, 24%, and now 19% for the blues. The trend is not Labour’s friend. We might need to come up with a new adjective for  just how rubbish Corbyn is.

This poll presages an absolute shellacking for Labour. If Labour had any sense they’d depose the voter repellent in the next week.

In the write up

Separate analysis by Opinium, which has been tracking the same 2,000 voters throughout this parliament, found that only 53% of those who had said they intended to vote Ukip in February are still planning to do so in the 8 May election, with 30% of them saying they will transfer allegiance to the Tories.

The crumbling of backing for Ukip appears to be the main reason for the dramatic surge in enthusiasm for May’s party. Labour’s fall may be the result of voters who were strongly in favour of Remain in the Brexit referendum last June deserting the party for the anti-Brexit Lib Dems.

When those who now choose the Lib Dems were asked to give the main reason they are deciding to back Tim Farron’s party, 50% said that it was because of its stance on Brexit. Just 6% of Labour voters said Jeremy Corbyn’s stance on Brexit was their main reason for backing Labour.

For me one of the most interesting aspects of this poll is the Lib Dems are on 11%. Due to the house of effects Opinium, the Lib Dems do quite poorly with this pollster, they had the Lib Dems on 4% last summer. So 11% with this pollster is very impressive for Tim Farron’s party.

Depending on the right odds I might fancy a bet on whether we will have at least one poll from a BPC registered pollster to see the Lib Dems ahead of Labour.

Tonight I’m also expecting a GB wide YouGov poll in The Sunday Times and a Scottish poll in one of the Scottish papers.

TSE