On the face of it all but two should go LAB – but will they?
In a month’s time we see the first elections for the Mayors of the 6 new combined authorities in England.
Elections are via the supplementary vote system so all voters have a first and a second choice. This is the same system that was first used for the election of Ken Livingstone in London in 2000, and has become a model for all elected mayors as well as the PCCs. It is effectively a slimmed Down version of a AV.
The chart shows the latest party shares based on the most recent local elections in the areas.
We know that turnout tends to be quite low whenever new positions are elected for the first time which always put a premium on organisation. The Greater Manchester contest takes place at the same time as the Gorton by-election which probably means that the result of that won’t be known until late in the night.
The Mayoral counts take place on the Friday morning.
There are betting markets for several of the elections and I expect all of them to be included by the start of May. Andy Burnham is odds on in Greater Manchester while the Tories are odds-on in the West Midlands.
The resurgent LDs have hopes in West of England and Cambridgeshire but in both the Tories must be favourites.