The country’s leading psephologists bring more bad news for Corbyn
Rallings & Thrasher predict in May's locals the Tories will gain 50 seats, Lib Dems gain 100 seats, Labour to lose 50, and UKIP to lose 100 pic.twitter.com/5mcIRDmBxr
— TSE (@TSEofPB) April 2, 2017
Full Rallings & Thrasher forecast NESV compared with 4 years ago is Con 31% (+5), Lab 29% (nc), LD 22% (+9) UKIP 10% (-12).
— TSE (@TSEofPB) April 2, 2017
Rallings & Thrasher predict Tories will gain seats for UKIP but the Tories could also lose seats to the Lib Dems
— TSE (@TSEofPB) April 2, 2017
The predictions are based on over 40 council election results in the last 3 months in seats with a total of more than 200,000 electors
— TSE (@TSEofPB) April 2, 2017
Crucially the Tories should be making net gains, a rare result for a sitting govt mid term, a testament to awfulness of Corbyn's leadership
— TSE (@TSEofPB) April 2, 2017
Whilst the primus inter pares of psephologists gives his analysis
Professor John Curtice predicts a 12-point swing from Labour to the Conservatives in May's local elections #bbcsp pic.twitter.com/3wx9jbmmsl
— BBC Daily Politics and Sunday Politics (@daily_politics) April 2, 2017
For a sitting government to make gains and the main opposition to lose seats in local elections is rare, and speaks volumes about the appalling nature of Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. Perhaps losses this year and next year might persuade his more passionate supporters to realise their man is the electoral equivalent of Ebola. For those who want a strong Labour party of a strong opposition, it might be best if Labour get absolutely shellacked in these local elections and the elections in 2018.
The Lib Dem fightback we’ve been seeing most Thursday nights since last June will continue this May as well, if Rallings and Thrasher are correct, if I were a Tory MP in the South West I might start to get a little nervous and pressure Mrs May to come up with plans and policies to help retain those seats, given the smallness of her majority she might have no choice if she wishes to govern properly.
As for UKIP, we appear to have seen peak UKIP, unless Mrs May’s Brexit deal is a Brexit lite deal which could re-energise UKIP, but with Arron Banks setting up The People’s Front for UKIP The Patriotic Alliance, it might not matter.