For a party with less than one MP UKIP sure knows how to hog the headlines
Ukip donor Banks says he will run against Carswell at next election after MP describes party as a 'basket case' https://t.co/9EcJfklbkp v
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 28, 2017
https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/836335896379207680
@MarkReckless this Carswell tweet says it all. UKIP MP or not, I'll stand against him in Clacton next election! https://t.co/NjuTDITiBI
— Arron Banks (@Arron_banks) February 27, 2017
My money would be on Carswell. Extraordinarily popular in Clacton and, no doubt, has the data. https://t.co/LgYNzLtff5
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 28, 2017
The big difference between Clacton MP, Douglas Carswell, and just about anybody else who has run for parliament for UKIP is that he’s shown that he can succeed under first past the post – the electoral area where UKIP has been an almost total failure.
If it comes to a fight between Banks and Carswell in what becomes of the Clacton constituency after the boundary changes then Carswell should do it even if a CON candidate is on the list. He’s got the name recognition and FPTP campaigning expertise as his performance in the 2014 by-election and GE2015 showed. The Tories threw an awful lot to try to regain the seat at GE2015 but fell quite a long way short.
Carswell understands data and my guess is that he and his team have a pretty good idea of his support base – the basic requirement in an FPTP election where it could be tight. The provisional boundaries plan has Clacton being linked to Harwich where Carswell was first elected an MP.
It might, of course, be that Carswell rejoins the Tories before the next election or maybe just stands as an independent.