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Month: January 2017

The Leader of Surrey County Council – The Unlikeliest Revolutionary

The Leader of Surrey County Council – The Unlikeliest Revolutionary

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At a time when the Daily Mail and others are eulogising over Donald Trump and extolling him as a revolutionary (though his “America First” slogan belonged to Charles Lindbergh over 70 years ago), I would argue the week’s true revolutionary is a contemporary of President Trump. Step forward David Hodge CBE, leader of Surrey County Council. This week Hodge announced a referendum for Surrey voters on a proposal to raise Council Tax 15% to fund additional adult social care. It’s…

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Hamon tops the first round French Socialist primary and looks set to be the party’s nominee

Hamon tops the first round French Socialist primary and looks set to be the party’s nominee

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Benoit Hamon moves to 4th favourite to the French presidency after a clear win over Manuel Valls in 1st round of Soclalist nomination race pic.twitter.com/1LJ7c1E244 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 22, 2017 With early results suggesting Benoit Hamon is leading the #PrimairesGauche, he is now 33/1 to be elected President of France. pic.twitter.com/vURTQygJBv — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) January 22, 2017 So it will be Hamon v Valls in the final run-off for French Socialist nomination. Main betting impact – slight…

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Betting on Mrs May outdistancing Mrs Thatcher’s tenure as Prime Minister

Betting on Mrs May outdistancing Mrs Thatcher’s tenure as Prime Minister

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William Hill have a market on whether Mrs May being Prime Minister for longer than the country’s first female Prime Minister. To be honest I’m not enthused by either option. To win the  10/1, you’d be tying up your money for the next eleven years, I can think of better things to do with my money than given William Hill an interest free loan for eleven years. For this bet to pay out Mrs May would have to win the…

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Douglas Carswell is my 100/1 tip for next Speaker of the House of Commons

Douglas Carswell is my 100/1 tip for next Speaker of the House of Commons

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Back in June 2009 when John Bercow was elected Speaker of the House of Commons he said he would serve for nine years, so if he honours his promise we are around 18 months from the election of a new Speaker. Ladbrokes have put up a market on who the new Speaker will be, I understand why Lindsay Hoyle is the joint favourite, he has widely praised for his performances as Deputy Speaker, but given the 100/1 odds on Carswell…

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The Tories’ current odds-on status in Copeland doesn’t square with the party’s rubbish performances since GE2015

The Tories’ current odds-on status in Copeland doesn’t square with the party’s rubbish performances since GE2015

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How the main two have done in LAB defences since GE2015 The CON performance in seats its defended since BREXIT And the local by election performance since last May’s elections Latest Betfair odds This latest betting move has been sparked off by press reports of LAB party canvas data. That, if true, came presumably from information gleaned before the candidate, was selected. Now that a local doctor and anti-Corbynite has been given the job then things could be different. One…

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Trump’s New American Revolution

Trump’s New American Revolution

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He can’t govern in slogans but they’ll take him a long way Inaugurations set the tone for a presidency and Trump undoubtedly set his yesterday: life will be different – for DC, for Europe, for China and for the world. In an extraordinarily pugnacious address, which might have been lifted direct from his campaign rallies, Trump served notice that the Old Order is dead as far as he is concerned. There will be no more Beltway politics, benefitting lobbyists and…

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After a dramatic and historic day the world has changed and we have yet to fully appreciate what the Trump presidency means

After a dramatic and historic day the world has changed and we have yet to fully appreciate what the Trump presidency means

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Following such an extraordinary day it is very hard to fully assimilate what we have seen and heard in Washington. Certainly the new President has given strong indications about his direction of travel and that is going to have huge implications in many different parts of the world including the UK and Europe. This was an inauguration speech like no other which very much reflects the  individual personality of the new President. At the same time it was quite moving seeing…

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And now the fourth Presidential Inauguration since PB was founded in 2004

And now the fourth Presidential Inauguration since PB was founded in 2004

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A sneak preview of Donald Trump's #inauguration address. pic.twitter.com/achgl0nOt5 — James Melville (@JamesMelville) January 18, 2017 https://twitter.com/nickc909/status/822407583872991232 A new US President is a reminder how long PB has been around. The site was founded in March 2004 when George W was the incumbent and beat John Kerry in that extraordinarily tight election. Four years later it was Barack Obama who had been tipped on the site when he was 50/1. Obama was re-elected in 2012 and now, of course, Donald…

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