How the Leavers may have ultimately signed the United Kingdom up for the single currency, the Schengen agreement, an EU Army, and a United States of Europe.

Despite all the hype and bluster, the court case, and Parliamentary scrutiny, the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union within the next few few years, and both will rapidly change because of Brexit.

Without the United Kingdom inside the EU stopping and vetoing more federalist ideas nor without our influence advocating pro business policies such as one of Margaret Thatcher’s finest acts as Prime Minister, the single market, the EU will become a very different beast to what it is now, especially amongst the Eurozone countries.

Whilst I’m not a supporter of the single currency, it always seemed flawed to me to have economic and monetary union without a full political union, and with the problems with Greece, I fully expect to see more integration in the EU, especially within the Eurozone.

But the EU doing very well won’t convince people in the U.K. to rejoin the EU, the other condition will be for the reality of Brexit to be seen as a mistake by the voters, or to put it bluntly, such as the fears of Brexit that Boris wrote about before he came out for Brexit actually happen.

Laissez les bon temps rouler might as well be the Leavers’ motto for a post Brexit U.K. but if the good times don’t roll then what? If Brexit turns out to be an economic mistake for the U.K., which translates to things like mass jobs losses, high inflation, and an economic slump then there may well be pressure to rejoin the EU. As an aside, it is far too early to conclude, one way or the other if Brexit has been an economic disaster or success, for every Sterling slide or a spike inflation, there’s some good news such elsewhere such as ING moving jobs to London. We will only have an idea once the final Brexit deal has been agreed if Brexit is good or bad for the economy.

We have some polling which already shows more Leavers regretting their vote than Remainers and with it looking like the poorest will be hit the hardest most by Brexit then that figure may very well rise.

In an ever evolving world some ideas that the U.K. public oppose today, they may very support in the future, for example with the possibility of Donald Trump in The White House, given Trump’s pronouncement that as President he wouldn’t automatically defend NATO allies under attack, supporting or joining a EU Army makes sense in those circumstances.

In any future deal for the U.K. to join the European Union, the U.K. will be the supplicant, so we won’t be able to dictate any favourable terms, and new members of the EU will have to sign up to things like the Euro, The EU Army, and the Schengen agreement, possibly all of them, and with the U.K. having already left the EU once, there maybe no future Article 50 option a second time. There would be a great irony if the Leavers end up helping the U.K. become a full member of a federal Europe, Jacques Delors, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, Jean Claude Juncker, and Sir Edward Heath may end up thanking Leavers for their help in realising their dream.

TSE

P.S. – It won’t necessarily mean a future referendum on taking us back into the EU, all it needs a Pro/Rejoin the EU party to win a majority at a general election, 48% might not be enough to win a binary choice referendum but in the right circumstances, 48% can win a landslide under first past the post. Perhaps Leavers should start supporting electoral reform such as the alternative vote to stop this scenario unfolding.