Who’ll win the LAB/LD/UKIP Witney battle for 2nd place in the parliament’s first CON Westminster by-election defence?
Farron’s party is under most pressure to perform
Betfair have now got up a Witney market on which party will be the winner excluding the Tories who clearly are red hot favourites to hold onto the seat that Cameron held from GE2001 until a week last Monday.
Both the LAB and UKIP will have just gone through leadership elections and both UKIP’s Diana James and, presumably Corbyn will want a good result to stamp their authority on their parties which remain divided because of the leadership contests.
Farron’s LDs have been doing remarkably well in local by-elections but have performed poorly in this parliament’s Westminster by-elections. They are also way behind in the national polls. A clear second place could help change the narrative about their party which has largely been ignored since their drubbing at GE2015.
The LDs have chosen as their candidate the woman who came a credible second in the seat behind Cameron at GE2005. No doubt it will be that result that features on the bar charts!
LAB have chosen Labour Duncan Enright who came second 43% behind Cameron at GE2015. He’s also not a JCFanBoy.
UKIP have yet to choose. In relative terms they did poorly here at GE2015 though ahead of the LDs.
Organisationally the LDs have a lot of activists living quite close to the seat including some key personnel who played a big part in the 2013 Eastleigh by-election defence.
Latest Ladbrokes Witney betting
CON 1/50 (was 1/500)
LD 16/1 (was 50/1)
LAB 25/1
UKIP 50/1
GRN 100/1— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 21, 2016
Latest Ladbrokes Witney betting – 2nd place
LD 5/4
LAB 6/4
UKIP 3/1
CON 16/1— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 21, 2016