LAB’s leadership weakness and another double digit Tory lead will increase the clamour for an early election
Tories move to 14% lead in Times/YouGov poll
CON 42+2
LAB 28=
LD 8=
UKIP 12-1— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 3, 2016
On this day in Ed Miliband leadership, Aug 3 2011, YouGov had LAB on 44% – 9 ahead of the Tories.
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 3, 2016
May doesn’t have the MPs to be sure of getting a BREXIT deal through
We have now got to a stage where a national voting poll that doesn’t give the Tories a 10%+ lead is going to be a shock.
This is being driven by a honeymoon for the new PM plus of course the huge weakness that LAB is currently portraying following the colossal vote of no confidence in Corbyn by 81% of the party’s MPs. His position is simply untenable but he’s struggling on and is favourite to beat off the leadership challenge.
My reading of Theresa May is that she won’t fall into the Gordon Brown trap in the autumn of 2007 and allow general election speculation to take hold but we have to recognise that her parliamentary position is very tight.
Her biggest challenge is the BREXIT deal she hopes to achieve which is never going to satisfy all parts of her parliamentary party. Already we’ve heard those wanting the hard BREXIT option are not going to be satisfied with a deal that also meets May’s declared objective of keeping the union together.
The talk now is that the timing of the next general election will be determined by those negotiations. If its controversial within her party then a 2017 election could give her a much bigger majority and the mandate to take the UK out of the EU on the terms her team can achieve.
I understand that there’s already talk of CCHQ putting the focus on a 2017 election with planning having been started.