Remain’s perfomance so far is not consistent with a Remain victory It is literally 50-50 as things stand. Problem for Remain is that if they’re going to win they needed to be ahead at this stage — Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) June 24, 2016 ITV News is forecasting 75% probability of Brexit, of UK voting to leave EU. This is huge. — Robert Peston (@Peston) June 24, 2016 @chrishanretty has updated his forecast and given Remain a 0% chance of success…
Basildon Leave 38 pts ahead, vs 25 pts expected if it's 50-50 nationally. Out of 20 results only 2 have Remain doing better than expected. — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) June 24, 2016 Remain blame game now in full swing – usually a reliable indicator of defeat. — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) June 24, 2016 Chris Bryant says 'tosspot' Miliband to blame for state Labour is in – https://t.co/dpPxRbJ5Ko — AndrewSparrow (@AndrewSparrow) June 24, 2016 Brexiteers think Labour are conceding Wales —…
Sunderland, #EUref result: Remain: 38.7% (51,930) Leave: 61.3% (82,394) — Britain Elects (@britainelects) June 23, 2016 We are one good Leave result away from crossover on Betfair pic.twitter.com/ieKK8FRJJM — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 23, 2016 "We are much tighter than we thought at the beginning of the night" @philipjcowley says after Sunderland result. — Patrick Wintour (@patrickwintour) June 23, 2016 2.4 per cent fall in sterling in just seconds…. https://t.co/nAdXDVRDNX — Jim Pickard (@PickardJE) June 23, 2016
Sources suggesting Sunderland might be as high as 62% for Leave, that would be quite something — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) June 23, 2016 Leave odds tumbling on Betfair pic.twitter.com/7nq1y7IPfe — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 23, 2016 Newcastle not good for Remain pic.twitter.com/yrYK4Jxekb — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 23, 2016 TSE
Unsurprisingly Leave have hit 15 on Betfair but does high turnout favour Leave? UKIP leader Nigel Farage says it "looks like 'Remain' will edge it" #EUref — Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) June 23, 2016 . @Arron_banks on Nigel Farage's early concession of a Remain win: "He doesn't know anything." pic.twitter.com/1ijwSgUBFY — Lucy Fisher (@LOS_Fisher) June 23, 2016 YouGov #EURef on the day poll: Remain 52% Leave 48%. Not an exit poll. This type of poll was fairly out at GE2015…
Thanks to Roberto Robles, Global Counsel (@robertoroblesf) for this.
Barely a day has gone by in the past few months when I have not been asked why the referendum betting odds were/are so out of line with the polling. Surely , it has been said, that if the polls have it level pegging or even LEAVE leads then why has REMAIN stayed as such a strong odds-on favourite. I usually try to answer that punters are taking a much broader view than just the voting polling taking into account,…
If LEAVE does manage to win it'll be a far far bigger polling disaster than at GE2015 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 23, 2016