By the same token REMAIN backers should act now

It’s becoming very apparent that the sequencing of polls by mode is having a a big impact on expectations about the outcome and, of course, the betting.

When, like now, online surveys are coming out regularly but their are few phone ones then the prospects for OUT look better which is reflected in the betting. LEAVE us better value when phone polls predominate.

We are currently in LEAVE high driven, I’d suggest by the absence from recent polling activity by the established phone pollsters. This is about to change and referendum punters need to take this into account.

Those who have been following the site for sometime will be aware I often like to bet on the betting with the objective of coming our with a profit whatever the outcome. A binary market like the referendum where the polls appear tight offers lots of opportunities.

So on Friday night after the sensational ORB 10% LEAVE lead poll I topped up my existing LEAVE position. Then after last night’s polling I closed off the bets using Betfair’s cash out facility in anticipation of the coming week.

REMAIN appears to be doing worse when most of the polls are online and vice versa. As the table above shows we have had a long run of online surveys with hardly any phone ones. In fact eight of the last nine published polls have been online

This is all going to change sharply in the next few days. We know an Ipsos-MORI phone poll is in the field, I expect a Telegraph ORB phone poll tomorrow night, Survation is due on Thursday and I am expecting a ComRes this week. There’s also the possibility of an ICM phone poll.

If these continue with the trend of recording better positions for REMAIN than the internet polls then the IN betting price will tighten and LEAVE will ease.

At the moment I’m not ready to call this election or make a firm declaration about which form of polling is best. What I do want to ensure is that whatever happens I’m a winner.

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB

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