Two of the last four phone polls have REMAIN leading amongst 65+ voters

Two of the last four phone polls have REMAIN leading amongst 65+ voters


And not one of the last 6 polls has OUT ahead amongst CON voters

The big BREXIT polling news overnight is splashed on the front page of the Telegraph – that in its latest ORB referendum phone poll the over 65s are splitting for REMAIN.

After taking out those who did not give a voting preference the 65+ group split was 54%-46%. Given that the overall poll sample size of 800 that ORB has been using for its BREXIT phone polls then clearly the older voter subset is going to be very small.

What gives this an added resonance is that this is the second phone poll in less than a week to have found the oldies splitting like this. Ipsos-MORI had the same picture in its Standard phone poll last Wednesday.

One of the great hopes of the BREXIT campaigns is that whatever the polls might be saying generally the oldies were going for them and, as we all know, these are the voters who are most likely to turn out.

    If other pollsters start showing the same trend then OUT could be in real trouble. At the moment this is just two polls.

Another subset split that is looking more robust statistically is what Tory voters are saying. ORB has them splitting 59%-41% to IN. This means in all of the past six referendum polls both online and phone that OUT doesn’t have a lead with any of them.

YouGov had the Tories dividing 50-50 while ICM phone, ICM online, Ipsos-MORI, Opinium and now ORB have REMAIN in the lead amongst supporters of Cameron’s party.

This is the revised polling table the month so far.


Mike Smithson

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