CON voters, it appears, are now more inclined to Dave’s EURef position than Boris’s
My article for tomorrow's Observer on the #EURef polling https://t.co/yfXfgCuYiW
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2016
New Opinium online poll has IN lead getting wider
IN: 44% (+2)
OUT: 40% (-1)— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2016
CON voters split #EURef polls
ICM phone 49-39 IN
ICM online 45-44 IN
YouGov 44-44
Ipsos MORI 60-34 IN
ComRes 48-46 IN
Opinium 48-41 IN— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2016
If it stays this way it could be decisive
The general view until this last week has been that LD and LAB supporters would mostly back IN with UKIP ones and Tories wanting out.
That’s now looking outdated given the polls we’ve seen this week. I list some of the CON voter splits in my Tweet above which appear to show a picture that will make uncomfortable reading for OUT and reassurance for IN.
The top Tweet links to my article on EURef polling in tomorrow’s Observer.
What’s very important about this latest spate of polling and what we’ll see in the coming days is that the postal vote packs will be hitting doormats in only a few days. Opinion now could be a good guide.