Aylsham (Con defence) on Broadland
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 43, Liberal Democrats 4 (Conservative majority of 39)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,588, 1,513, 1,125 (32%)
Liberal Democrats 1,521, 1,065, 926 (31%)
Labour 1,082 (22%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 719, 658 (15%)
Candidates duly nominated: Christopher Jenner (Lab), Steve Riley (Lib Dem), Hal Turkmen (Con)

Ashby de la Launde and Cranwell (Con defence) on North Kesteven
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 28, Lincolnshire Independents 8, Independents 4, Non Party Independents 2, Hykeham Independents 1 (Conservative majority of 13)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,789, 1,504 (67%)
Independent 871 (33%)
Candidates duly nominated: Steve Clegg (Lincolnshire Independent), Luke Mitchell (Con), Claire Newton (Lib Dem)

Hutton (Con defence) on Redcar and Cleveland
Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 29, Liberal Democrats 11, Conservatives 10, Independents 8, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 1)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,997, 1,963, 1,792 (54%)
Labour 1,071, 950, 856 (29%)
Liberal Democrat 643 (17%)
Candidates duly nominated: Caroline Jackson (Con), Graeme Kidd (Lib Dem), Harry Lilleker (UKIP), Ian Taylor (Lab), George Tinsley (Ind)

There are seven words that no local by-election candidate representing the government wishes to hear during the planning of a campaign “Budget Day is the day before polling” as it means that no matter what you do, your fate has been sealed within moments of the Chancellor sitting down and over the past nine years several Chancellors have managed to “put their foot in it” without even setting foot on the campaign trail. Here are some of the bigger upsets that have happened post Budget

Sutton in Ashfield North on Nottinghamshire (2007)
Lib Dem 1,979 (73% +59%), Lab 435 (16% -29%), Con 222 (8% -16%), UKIP 70 (3%)
Lib Dem GAIN from Lab with a majority of 1,544 (57%) on a swing of 44% from Lab to Lib Dem

Totteridge on Wycombe (2009)
Lib Dem 733 (54% +37%), Con 408 (30% -11%), Lab 214 (16% -26%)
Lib Dem GAIN from Lab with a majorty of 325 (24%) on a swing of 24% from Con to Lib Dem (31.5% from Lab to Lib Dem)

Gooshays on Havering (2013)
UKIP 831 (39% +25%), Lab 569 (27% -2%), Con 280 (13% -13%), Ratepayers 227 (11% +1%), BNP 202 (10% -13%), Residents 24 (1%)
UKIP GAIN from Con with a majority of 262 (12%) on a swing of 13.5% from Lab to UKIP (19% from Con to UKIP)

Overall if you average out the changes for the governing party in every local by-election they defended the day after the Budget from 2007 to 2015 you find out that the Government loses 6% compared to the last election which means that based on that long term average Aylsham should be a Liberal Democrat gain and Hutton will become a marginal, but will George will able to buck the trend (and if he does, will he be able to say “I am the true successor to Cameron!”)

Harry Hayfield