Video: The assassination of Julius Caesar and which has served as guide for The Tory Party in the past on deposing leaders. Nota bene, the video contains graphic violence not suitable for minors nor those of a delicate disposition.

The Tory Party has a ruthless tradition of deposing leaders even the electorally successful ones, unlike most parties, the Tory party has a history of stabbing their leaders not in the back, but usually in the front, very publicly. Boris Johnson memorably compared it to “Papua New Guinea-style orgies of cannibalism and chief-killing.” It looks like we might be in for a repeat, the front page of The Sunday Times says even if Cameron wins the referendum he will be facing a leadership challenge.

As part of the referendum campaign there will be a few debates that as the tweets below indicate, we could see a head to head between David Cameron and Michael Gove. Whilst nothing has been finalised, I mean with the various Leave groups still intent on acting like the Judean People’s Front versus The People’s Front of Judea, nothing is assured on the debate front, but I expect some form of debates will take place, and like last year’s general election debates, Cameron will ultimately be forced to take part, to avoid accusations that he is frit.

Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

— Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) February 27, 2016

My best guess for the debates: Gove v Cameron on Question Time and Boris or Priti/Gisela Stuart/Biz leader or Farage for out in the 3 way

— Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) February 27, 2016

David Cameron is a very polished media performer, but he has had the occasional bad performance in debates, most notably in the first of the 2010 leader debates, which saw Cleggmania come to the fore, and many said this bad performance helped deny the Tories a majority in 2010.

If Cameron does face Gove, Gove will have the advantage that people will expect Cameron to win a debate against him, as the old adage goes, success equals performance minus anticipation. Even if it isn’t a strict head to head debate, Gove could well outshine Cameron and damage Cameron and Remain’s chances, which endangers Cameron’s continued leadership of the Tory Party.

What will make Gove’s criticism of Cameron and his deal so damaging is that they are coming from someone on Cameron’s own side, and someone who Cameron has known for many years, and considers a very close friend. A few weeks ago it was thought Gove would be backing Remain out of loyalty to Cameron. Any attacks for example by Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage could be easily dismissed as opportunism by people after Cameron’s job or from his long standing political opponents who if Cameron could walk on water, would criticise Cameron for not being able to swim. Every criticism from Gove will feel to Cameron like the dagger Brutus wielded into Caesar on the Ides of March.

They say history repeats itself, in 1990, one of Lady Thatcher’s most loyal and long standing supporters, turned on her citing a tragic conflict of loyalty, whilst Gove will not want to trigger Cameron’s departure, his actions may well do. Come the 24th of June, David Cameron might well be uttering Et tu Michael? Like Caesar, a year after a memorable and stunning victory, it could all end very badly for Cameron.

TSE