Botchery (Lab defence) on Carlisle
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 29, Labour 20, United Kingdom Independence Party 2, Liberal Democrats 1 (Conservative majority of 6)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Labour 822 (33%), Independent 725 (29%), Conservative 516 (21%), United Kingdom Independence Party 345 (14%), Green Party 75 (3%)
Candidates duly nominated: Rob Curry (Con), Stephen Sidgwick (Lab), Jack Paton (Ind)

Result of ward at past elections (1999 – 2011)
2011: Labour 720 (50%), Independent 432 (30%), Conservative 287 (20%)
2007: Labour 618 (50%), Conservative 400 (32%), British National Party 217 (18%)
2003: Labour 698 (61%), Conservative 452 (39%)
1999: Conservatives 611, 609, 576 (51%), Labour 575, 557, 549 (49%)

It could be stated that over the last twelve or so years, not much has changed in Carlisle. Indeed, comparing Carlisle 2003 with Carlisle 2015 would show that the Conservatives had made five net gains, Labour two net losses, the Liberal Democrats four net losses, the Independents one net loss and UKIP two net gains, and whilst it is true that in most elections since then there were very few changes (no more than four at an election until 2015) those changes were enough to swing the council all over the place. In 2004, Labour became the largest party gaining two seats (who along with the Lib Dems gaining two) forced the Conservatives to concede four seats, in 2006 the Lib Dems made the solitary gain (again from the Conservatives), in 2007 Labour gained a seat from the Lib Dems, in 2008 the Conservatives made the gains, in 2010 Labour and the Independents made a gain each from the Lib Dems, there was another Labour gain from Lib Dem in 2011 and it wasn’t until 2012 when Labour finally managed to gain control of the council by themselves gaining four (two from Con and two from Lib Dem) and in 2014 they increased their majority to six. So the fact that in 2015 the Conservatives made 10 gains (eight of which came from Labour) and gained overall control themselves just goes to show how much England swung to the Conservatives at the general election and given the closeness of this ward at those elections (in which apart from the first elections on those boundaries in 1999 had Labour picking up half the vote) it is not without the bounds of possibility that the Conservatives could make their first gain of 2016.