Grendon, Underwood and Brill (Con defence) on Aylesbury Vale
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 43, Liberal Democrats 9, United Kingdom Independence Party 4, Labour 2, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 27)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Conservative 1,068 (55%), United Kingdom Independence Party 427 (22%), Green Party 246 (13%), Liberal Democrats 213 (11%)
Candidates duly nominated: Cameron Branston (Con), Gary Good (UKIP), Julian Newman (Lib Dem)

Aylesbury Vale is perhaps a fitting way to end 2015, a year marked by a Conservative demolition policy on their former coalition allies, as that is precisely what has been happening over the last 12 years on this council. In 2003, the Conservatives had an overall majority of 1 with the Liberal Democrats just five seats short of an overall majority themselves, but as time progressed the Conservatives started to whittle down the number of Liberal Democrats to 21 in 2007, 17 in 2011 and then nine in May whilst their tally increased from 30 to 37 then 38 and now 43 and seeing how far behind the Liberal Democrats were in this ward in May, I can’t see them getting an early Christmas present in the form of a gain. But without a Green party candidate standing this time will those voters back the Liberal Democrats and allow them to overtake UKIP into second place?

On behalf of Political Betting.com, may I wish you all a Merry Christmas and remember, just five months until London, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, English locals and PCC elections!