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Month: November 2015

Do 1 in 5 British Muslims really ‘sympathise with Jihadis’?

Do 1 in 5 British Muslims really ‘sympathise with Jihadis’?

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Keiran Pedley looks at this morning’s front page of The Sun and argues that we should always check the small print when reading opinion polls. As someone that has spent most of his professional life reading opinion polls I have always enjoyed this scene from Yes Minister where Sir Humphrey explains to Bernard how to rig an opinion poll. It’s a funny scene but does demonstrate a pretty important point that all pollsters know – opinion poll results are often as much about how…

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The Great Corbyn leader rating divide

The Great Corbyn leader rating divide

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How GE15 CON voters react differently depending on the question format With question marks still hanging over voting intention polling there’s been a lot more focus on leader ratings which seemed to have performed far better as voting indicators at GE2015. But here’s a thing. Over the past five days we’ve seen three completely different pictures of how Mr Corbyn is doing from three of the UK’s leading pollsters. Just look at the chart above. With Ipsos-MORI things are not…

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The diminishing options of the average Labour MP

The diminishing options of the average Labour MP

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Picture: Scene from Resident Evil, this might be how the typical Labour MP is now feeling because of Corbynmania. The typical Labour MP started off unenthused with Jeremy Corbyn as their new leader in September.  He commanded little respect among his parliamentary colleagues and he only crept onto the ballot paper for the leadership election with loaned votes.  It is fair to say that nothing that has happened since has improved the view of the average Labour MP of their…

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If the parliamentary Tory party had followed the polling in 1990 John Major would not have become PM

If the parliamentary Tory party had followed the polling in 1990 John Major would not have become PM

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  Ten days before he became Tory leader, only 5% of voters preferred John Major as Tory leader. Via @majorsrise pic.twitter.com/fEmGNRQmtC — TSE (@TSEofPB) November 22, 2015 Often winning the Tory leadership is about who you aren’t not about who you are. Twenty-five years ago today Lady Thatcher announced her decision to resign as Prime Minister, but if the parliamentary Tory party had followed the polling then her successor would not have been John Major but Michael Heseltine. The above…

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CON leads moves to 15% with ComRes online while Corbyn sees 10% drop in his favourability ratings

CON leads moves to 15% with ComRes online while Corbyn sees 10% drop in his favourability ratings

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VOTING INTENTION Con 42% (NC) Lab 27% (-2) LD 7% (NC) UKIP 15% (+2) Green 3% (NC) SNP 5% (NC) Other 1% (NC) And Osbo’s leadership hopes take another blow The ComRes leader ratings paint a very different picture from that which we saw from Ipsos earlier in the week. This is down to the question. ComRes ask favourability questions while the Ipsos-MORI rating relates to leader satisfaction. The latter found 28% of 2015 CON voters saying they are satisfied…

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How Corbyn compares with Trump on the betting markets & other Saturday afternoon points

How Corbyn compares with Trump on the betting markets & other Saturday afternoon points

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Next President & next PM betting On Betfair Corbyn's rated as an 8,3% chance to become next PM. That's almost the same as the 8.6% chance of Trump becoming President — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 20, 2015 IDS’s and JC’s leadership elections Corbyn's 59.5% LAB leadership vote share compares with Duncan Smith's 60.7% in 2001 CON contest. 2 years & 2 months later IDS was booted out — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 20, 2015 ComRes favourability numbers coming up but…

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Time to back Biden (if you can)

Time to back Biden (if you can)

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  It may be worth having a cover against Hillary US presidential elections are brilliant. The fractal-like complexity of the process by which someone ends up in the White House provides endless scope for novelists, script-writers and conspiracy theorists to come up with weird and wonderful ways for the most implausible individuals to follow in the footsteps of Washington, Lincoln, Roosevelts and Obama. And in theory, they could. The reality, of course, is that the nominations are usually all but…

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Why it might not be wise for UKIP to go too hard on expenses and allowances in Oldham

Why it might not be wise for UKIP to go too hard on expenses and allowances in Oldham

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This from the UKIP candidate https://twitter.com/JohnBickleyUKIP/status/667486529389010944 And a bit of history Since 1999 more people elected as UKIP MEPs have been jailed for expenses fraud than the number of MPs the party has at Westminster — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2015