George Street and Harbour (SNP defence) and Midstocket and Rosemount (Con defence) on City of Aberdeen
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 17, Scottish National Party 15, Liberal Democrats 5, Conservatives 3, Independents 3 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 5)
Result of wards at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected

George Street and Harbour
Scottish National Party 672, 224 (34%)
Labour 456, 381 (31%)
Liberal Democrats 262 (10%)
Independents 26, 222 (9%)
Conservatives 178 (7%)
Greens 194 (7%)
National Front 29 (1%)
Non Party Independent 14 (1%)
Candidates duly nominated: Brian Davidson (Con), Euan Davidson (Lib Dem), Michael Hutchinson (SNP), Alex Jarvis (Green), Mike Scott (Lab)

Midstocket and Rosemount
Scottish National Party 1,223, 264 (39%)
Labour 1,247 (33%)
Conservatives 531 (14%)
Liberal Democrats 245 (6%)
Greens 245 (6%)
Independent 82 (2%)
Candidates duly nominated: Howard Gemmell (Lab), Tom Mason (Con), Ken McLeod (Lib Dem), Alex Nicholl (SNP), Jennifer Phillips (Green)

Irvine Valley on East Ayrshire (SNP defence)
Result of council at last election (2012): Scottish National Party 15, Labour 14, Conservatives 2, Independent 1 (No Overall Control, Scottish National Party short by 2)
Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Scottish National Party 1,252, 847 (45%)
Labour 1,423 (30%)
Conservatives 857 (18%)
Independent 339 (7%)
Candidates duly nominated: Jen Broadhurst (Green), Susan McFadzean (Con), Alex Walsh (Lab), Elena Whitham (SNP)

Glenrothes West and Kinglassie on Fife (SNP defence)
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 35, Scottish National Party 26, Liberal Democrats 10, Conservatives 3, Independents 3, Non Party Independent 1 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 5)
Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Scottish National Party 910, 349, 941 (42%)
Labour 708, 1,424 (41%)
Independent 147, 192 (7%)
Scottish Pensioners 271 (5%)
Conservatives 155 (3%)
Liberal Democrats 83 (2%)
Candidates duly nominated: Julie Ford (SNP), Jonathan Gray (Con), Lorna Ross (Green), Alan Seath (Lab)

Heldon and Laich on Moray (Ind defence)
Result of council at last election (2012): Scottish National Party 10, Independents 10, Conservatives 3, Labour 3 (No Overall Control, Scottish National Party and Independents short by 4)
Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Independents 584, 735, 241 (39%)
Scottish National Party 797, 678 (37%)
Conservatives 688 (17%)
Greens 262 (7%)
Candidates duly nominated: Pete Bloomfield (Con), James Mackessack-Leitch (Green), Joyce O’Hara (SNP), Dennis Slater (Ind)

Stirling East on Stirling (SNP defence)
Result of council at last election (2012): Scottish National Party 9, Labour 8, Conservatives 4, Green 1 (No Overall Control, Scottish National Party short by 3)
Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 862, 858 (45%)
Scottish National Party 1,278 (33%)
Liberal Democrats 403 (10%)
Conservatives 302 (8%)
Green Party 163 (4%)
Candidates duly nominated: Luke Davidson (Con), Chris Kane (Lab), Gerry McLaughlan (SNP), Alasdair Tollemache (Green)

Linlithgow on West Lothian (SNP defence)
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 16, Scottish National Party 15, Conservative 1, Independent 1 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 1)
Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Scottish National Party 829, 1,827 (42%)
Conservatives 2,112 (33%)
Labour 1,292 (20%)
St. John’s Hospital 280 (5%)
National Front 25 (0%)
Candidates duly nominated: Ian Burgess (Con), Brenda Galloway (NPI), Caron Lindsay (Lib Dem), David Manion (Lab), Maire McCormack (Green), David Tait (SNP)

There have been thirteen by-elections in Scotland since the general election (with all bar two of them being SNP defences) caused by the majority of them being SNP councillors who were duly nominated to contest the general election hoping to get a very credible second place and eneded up getting elected to Westminster. And that surge that sent them to Westminster shows no sign of ending. In those thirteen by-elections the SNP have polled 47% of the vote compared to Labour’s 43% with the other parties lagging way behind (Con 5%, Others 4%, Greens 2%, UKIP 1%) with swings that if it wasn’t for the general election would be staggering. Examples include the 26.5% swing from Lab to SNP in Hilton on Aberdeen in July, 28% swing from Lab to SNP in Craigton on Glasgow in August and then a rather minor but still impressive 10.5% swing from Lab to SNP in Ayr East on South Ayrshire in September. So what’s going to happen in all of these wards? In a nutshell seven SNP wins I think (five holds, one gain from Con and one gain from Ind) which if that is what does happen will make the result of the Scottish Parliament such a foregone conclusion that anything less than 86 SNP MSP’s will seem like a disappointment.

Banbury, Grimsbury and Castle on Cherwell (Con defence)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 41, Labour 7, Liberal Democrats 1, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 32)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Conservative 821 (45%), Labour 713 (39%), Green Party 186 (10%), Liberal Democrat 104 (6%)
Candidates duly nominated: Kenneth Ashworth (Lib Dem), Shaida Hussain (Lab), Christopher Manley (Green), Tony Mepham (Con), Linda Wren (UKIP)

So what a good thing we have the uniform reassurance of Cherwell in Oxfordshire to calm us down. A council where the Conservatives have never fallen below 34 seats and where the opposition have never managed to break double figures since 2007. I mean don’t get me wrong, with UKIP contesting there is the chance of a Labour gain and the Lib Dem fightback could also tip the balance towards Labour, but I am expecting a nice reassuring Conservative hold proving that whilst Scotland seems determined to have a second referendum on independence, in the more rural parts of England it’s a simply a case of “Jeeves, close the curtains will you, it’s getting a might parky in the evenings now!”