Latest @Survation / Mail on Sunday poll on the EU and Syria. Has Out/Leave leading via @suttonnick pic.twitter.com/CCpC5LZSFs

— TSE (@TSEofPB) September 5, 2015

A year ago today The Sunday Times published a YouGov poll that had Yes ahead in the Scottish Independence referendum campaign. In the history of Politicalbetting.com no other opinion poll has generated quite so much comment and reaction.

It wasn’t only PBers who reacted to this poll, it led to the three Westminster Unionist parties offering The Vow to Scotland. After the indyref some asked “Did this poll cost Britain £45 billion?”

My own belief is that this poll actually ended up harming the Scottish independence movement as it helped galvanise and focus the minds of the Unionist movement as they could see the Union slipping away.

So what to make of today’s poll by Survation for the Mail on Sunday which has leaving the EU ahead? With the upcoming EU referendum some consistent polling showing Leave ahead might help focus minds on the continent and strengthen Cameron’s negotiating position. I suspect the EU will not want any member to leave as it will send a bad signal to the world about the EU, nor will they want their second largest net contributor to leave. Though I’m not expecting the likes of Bild to run a front page entitled “Der Gelübde.”

Right now I’m exercising caution with any polling until the British Polling Council inquiry into the polling failure at general election has reported, but anyone who thought Remain was going to win comfortabtly will have to re-evaluate that position. Whoever wins the economic argument about leaving or remaining in the EU will win the referendum in my opinion.

The full Survation data tables are available here.

TSE