Panelbase polled Scots & Rest of UK (RUK) voters 66% of Scots would vote to REMAIN in the EU 51% of RUK voters would vote to LEAVE the EU

— TSE (@TSEofPB) July 18, 2015

Could tactical Scottish Nationalist voters win it for OUT?

Panelbase polled 1,002 voters in Scotland and 956 voters in the rest of the UK from June 26th to July 3rd and got the above results on the forthcoming EU referendum, so this isn’t an analysis of English and Scottish sub-samples but a properly weighted poll.

A few weeks ago Nicola Sturgeon said

“I previously stated my view that if Scotland were to be taken out of Europe despite voting as a nation to have remained, it would provoke a strong backlash amongst many ordinary voters. Quite what the result of that would be no-one can perceive but I’ve stated before that this could be one scenario producing the kind of material change in circumstances that would precipitate popular demand for a second independence referendum.

Bluntly, I believe that the groundswell of anger amongst many ordinary people in Scotland under these circumstances could produce a clamour for another independence referendum that may well be unstoppable.”

In light of these comments by the First Minister, I wonder if some supporters of Scottish independence might vote tactically for OUT in the EU referendum, to ensure the UK as a whole votes to leave the EU, but ensuring Scotland votes to remain in the EU, purely for the greater good of ensuring a second Scottish independence referendum.

Scotland voting to remain in the EU whilst the rest of the UK voted to leave, would also amplify the differences between Scotland and the rest of the UK, which would also be good for the Scottish independence movement.

An informal UKIP/SNP alliance would be the most unlikely alliance since the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, but politics, like war, breeds strange allies. If the focus of the EU referendum becomes about Scottish independence, then the IN side might struggle to come up with a response that satisfies both Scotland & England/Rest of the UK and ends up displeasing both.

TSE

The Panelbase poll also brought more good news for the SNP and bad news for Labour in next year’s Holyrood election.

Panelbase/Sunday Times Scotland poll Constituency – SNP 53% Lab 22% Cons 15%, LD 5%, Greens 2% UKIP 2% Fieldwork 26/6 to 3/7

— TSE (@TSEofPB) July 18, 2015

Panelbase/Sunday Times Scotland poll List – SNP 48% Lab 21%, Con 15%, Greens 6%, LD 5%, UKIP 2% Fieldwork 26/6 to 3/7

— TSE (@TSEofPB) July 18, 2015

Panelbase/Sunday Times Seats translation SNP 73 (+4) Lab 27 (-10) Con 18 (+3) Greens 5 (+2) LD 6 (+1)

— TSE (@TSEofPB) July 18, 2015