75% would vote to remain to stay in the EU whilst 25% would vote to leave

One of the reasons I like the Ipsos Mori polling on the EU, is that they’ve been polling on the topic for nearly forty years, they have another poll out today for the the Evening Standard.

If the historic in-out referendum were to be staged now, 66 per cent say they would vote to remain members and 22  per cent would vote to quit. Excluding the don’t knows, at 12 per cent, the result is an emphatic 75 to 25.

It comes amid a rising tempo of referendum preparations. As the Prime Minister held talks with his Slovak counterpart ahead of a Brussels summit next week, seven Eurosceptic MPs from Labour, the Tories and Ukip announced moves to form the Out campaign….

….

….The survey for the Evening Standard used the exact wording expected to be on voting slips in the poll, due to be held by the end of 2017. In addition, half the 1,005-strong sample was asked a second question with a wording used on Ipsos MORI surveys over four decades: “If there were a referendum now on whether Britain should stay in or get out of the European Union, how would you vote?”

It found another huge majority to stay in, of 61 per cent to 27. That included 63 per cent of Conservatives and 76 per cent of Labour backers who want to stay. Almost all Ukip supporters would leave, however.

The caveats I’d emphasise are, the Tories and Cameron in particular are enjoying a post election boost, Cameron has his best leader ratings since 2010. Secondly, UKIP are on 7% in this poll, which is half of what they polled at the general election, so the OUT movement maybe under-represented in this polling which has fed into this supplementary. That said, even if we up-weighted UKIP by 100%, remaining in the EU would still have a substantial lead.

Because of the honeymoon, the proportion of respondents who are either very or fairly confident that Cameron will get a good deal in his negotiations with European leaders have increased by 12% to 38% since last November, whilst those not confident in the Prime Minister’s ability to get a good deal has fallen by 12% to 57%, this is probably another driver in the increase of voters wanting to remain in the EU.

It should be remembered, ICM, the most accurate pollster when it came to the AV referendum, a year before the referendum, had AV winning 62% to 38%, so things can change and IN should not be complacent nor should Out be disheartened by just one poll.

It isn’t all good news for Cameron, 74% of the voters want ministers free to campaign against the official government position when it comes to the referendum.

The full data tables are available here.

TSE