This pattern doesn’t look right

As I’ve said so often what the 2010 LD voters do in the marginals could be absolutely critical in deciding the election.

In processing yesterday’s round of CON-LAB marginals from Lord Ashcroft I came across the above apparent oddity in the Croydon Central survey. Its 2010 LD switcher total to the Tories is totally out of line with just about anything we have seen in his constituency polling.

In October Lord Ashcroft found a split in Croydon Central of LAB 45% to CON 11%.

Before the poll’s publication yesterday’s LAB was as tight s 1/2 with some bookies to win. Now you can get 6/4 with Ladbrokes. Looking at the polling detail the latest price seems like a great value bet.

I’m on.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB