Clegg (1/2) & Farage (8/11) remain favourites with Betfair Sportsbook to win their seats in spite of @LordAshcroft polls having them behind

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2015

This is a bet on seat distribution not national vote shares

One of the big things to remember as we get close is that the final seat totals are not governed by national vote share in some apparently pure manner but on the specific outcomes in 650 separate constituency battles fought under FPTP.

Clearly this time the traditional ways of estimating seats from polls numbers have been smashed to smithereens by the political earthquake in Scotland. We should treat the politics north of the Tweed like we do with Northern Ireland which has operated in its own political eco-system for half a century.

In England and Wales where the big LAB-CON battles will take place it is not inconceivable that the party that’s second on votes could come on top.

So much is determined by local activity and strength of the party’s organisations.

When I look at the Ashcroft seat polls where the outcome is tight I always check the voting numbers before turnout filtering comes in. Quite often, like in yesterday’s Ashcroft Swindon South poll the Tories were 2 points adrift before this calculation.

As I’ve observed many times in the key marginals the party machines’ objectives are to ensure that even the most marginal voters vote.

My reading of the most seats outcome is that CON leads but not by very much. We are 55-45

REVISED
CON moves from 2% behind to 5% lead amongst those certain to vote with Ipsos-MORI
CON 35 +2
LAB 30 -5
LD 8 +1
UKIP 10=
GRN 8 =

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2015

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB