So what combination will fail to be elected on May 7th?

One of those attending the PB party on Tuesday, a long standing lurker who has never posted, told me that one of his favourite bets at the moment was the then 50/1 he’d got that Farage, Salmond and Clegg would all fail to be elected at the election.

This was pleasing to me personally because the market on which combination of the three would make it was one I’d designed and suggested to Betfair Sportsbook.

Election betting is always more fun when it is about people and with each case of Clegg, Salmond & Farage you can make a case that they won’t be elected.

Of the two current party leaders and one former leader only one of whom at the moment is an MP, Nick Clegg, and in Sheffield Hallam looks to have the biggest fight on his hands. The polling that’s done been suggests that LAB could take the seat a fact that has attracted many party activists to join the fight to oust him. This of itself could be Clegg’ salvation because it might encourage CON voters to back him to stop LAB.

Farage is if course the marmite politician – you either love him or you loathe him and he’s clearly got a tough fight in the three way marginal of Thanet South. He might be saved by the anti-UKIP vote being split between CON and LAB.

Salmond is seeking to get back into the Commons in the current Lib Dem seat of Gordon where the incumbent is retiring. A challenge is that the area voted overwhelmingly for NO last September and the Ashcroft polling did not have the SNP in as strong a position as in other Scottish constituencies. If there’s the anti-Salmond/SNP tactical vote bandwagon takes off he could be hit.

Latest prices on the combinations of who’ll be elected.

All 3 6/4
Clegg and Salmond 3/1
Farage and Salmond 11/4
Clegg and Farage 9/2
Salmond only 8/1
Clegg only 25/1
Farage only 25/1
None 40

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB