Don’t be put off by the Ashcroft 6% CON lead

One of the best UKIP constituency bets at the moment is the 4/1 that’s available from several bookies on UKIP winning South Basildon and East Thurrock.

The candidate is Ian Luder, CBE, former Lord Mayor of London, ex-president of the Institute of Taxation, and advisor to government at the highest level. He’s also had a long record in local government with LAB and is a highly accomplished on the ground campaigner. One thing’s for sure his campaign won’t constrained by a lack of resources.

If elected on May 7th he would be a force to be reckoned with in UKIP’s parliamentary party and you could even see him as a future leader.

On the face of it the Ashcroft polling of the seat published last month points to a CON victory but the detail of the poll is much more beneficial to the purples.

On the first voting intention questioning UKIP had a small lead. This became a CON one because of turnout weighting and the reallocation of don’t knows from 2010 CON voters.

The poll took place just after Luder had become candidate so there was almost no time for his presence to have an impact on the second constituency specific question.

As I’ve repeatedly observed in tight marginals the “all those expressing a voting intention” finding is probably a better guide than the post turnout weighted one. The aim of campaigns us to ensure that the most marginal voters vote. Knowing Luder his campaign will maximise turnout.

There’s a final element which makes this a good bet. He is a highly credible candidate with the potential to appeal to voters across the political spectrum. I’d suggest that he’s got more appeal than just about any other UKIP candidate apart from Douglas Carswell.

I’m on you ought to be. At current prices it’s a value bet.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB