The debates stand off: This could have been the afternoon when DC won GE15 or lost it http://t.co/PjLT8xY85y pic.twitter.com/iJvgaBbXFP

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 6, 2015

Problem for Cameron is that if he later decides to takes part in the debates it'll look weak because of his earlier stance

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 6, 2015

So now we have it. Number 10 has made its final offer on the TV debates which has been rejected by the broadcasters who say they are going ahead with their three events irrespective of Cameron’s view.

It is very hard now seeing the PM changing his mind. His bluff has been called and he will live with the consequences. Clearly the calculation is that the debates going ahead without him is less risky than him taking part.

From Number 10’s perspective this will be old news by the time we get to April and his absence will make the events much lesser occasions.

The danger cones if other parties manage to weave a narrative about his approach to this symbolising something very negative about his leadership.

Whatever I think this has been a big moment in the campaign – as yet I cannot decide who’ll come off better or worse.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB