Purples drop 5 while LAB edges close to overall majority

The weekly Ashcroft phone poll continues to surprise us. From being, until last week, the only pollster not to have recorded a LAB lead in 2015 the latest, published at 4pm, has the very best figures for LAB in a phone poll since the Guardian’s ICM poll in mid-December.

For UKIP the fall is in line with the trend if not the scale recorded by other pollsters. It does seem that the wind has now been taken out of UKIP sails.

But like I said when Ashcroft had a 6% CON lead in early January this is just one poll and we need to see others before we can conclude that a real red team recovery is taking place.

Given that the Tories were 11.4% ahead in England at GE10 the 6% LAB England only lead here represents a massive swing which would leave Miliband with a comfortable majority even if his party lost all its 41 Scottish seats. I’m not convinced by that either.

I do admire the bravery of CON most seats punters – risking their cash in defiance of the polls and the unreformed electoral system that still favours LAB.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB