Survation private polling suggests the LDs "competitive" in Solihill CON target number 3 http://t.co/4JXAuHaYct pic.twitter.com/WOdNRrFFyc

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 20, 2015

Ladbrokes have them at 10/3

Big polling story of the day are the reports of Survation private seat surveys for the Lib Dems some of the details of which the party is publishing. A key element, unlike the Ashcroft polling, is that incumbent MPs are named which is having a positive impact on response. This is from the report:

“The party even knows the popularity of all its current incumbent MPs that are standing again, and is capable of ranking their net positive ratings.

The scale of the positive ratings for some well dug-in Lib Dem MPs such as Norman Lamb, Tim Farron or Andrew George is high, with many hitting a net positive rating of 60%. The polling shows the party is squeezing the Tory vote in key seats by running a strong anti cuts message, but it is clear it is struggling to win back Lib Dems disillusioned by Clegg going into government with the Tories, making its retention of seats where Labour is the main challenger a much harder task.

On the basis of the projections, the party is on course to remain competitive in seats that would fall if there was landslide against the Lib Dems, such as Cheltenham, St Ives, Cardiff Central, Eastbourne, Solihull, Cheadle, Leeds North East, Cambridge and Bermondsey. The rise in the Lib Dem vote in these seats is almost entirely undetected in national polls where the party is becalmed, it claims.”

In most of the named seats there is polling from Lord Ashcroft to corroborate the assertions. The one that stands out is Solihull where Lord A had the Tories 9% ahead. Ladbrokes have the LDs on 10/3

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB