Why relatively small movements amongst just 1% of likely voters on May 7th can mean so much in terms of the GE15 outcome

Why relatively small movements amongst just 1% of likely voters on May 7th can mean so much in terms of the GE15 outcome

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The extraordinary impact of Scotland

Looking at the GB electorate as a whole the total of voters who have moved from LAB to the SNP in Scotland amount to fewer than 1% yet the impact in terms of seats can be enormous which is why Scottish polls are so significant.

I am sure we are all aware of the numbers by now. There are 59 Scottish seats and in 2010 41 of them went LAB. Even more important for the SNP is that what is now Sturgeon’s party were only within 20% of LAB in three of the seats and none were closer than 10%.

The way the system has worked in Scotland suggests that even if LAB is 5% down on the SNP then Miliband’s party would still beat the SNP on the number of Scottish MPs.

In such a context the polling as a whole is far from helpful. In surveys this year the SNP lead has varied from the 28% of Ipsos to 10% from TNS and Panelbase. The latest from Survation is broadly in the the middle of that.

The John Curtice chart above shows the enormous impact of different SNP leads in terms of Scottish seats.

Quite simply if the SNP nearly wipe out LAB north of the border on May 7tn we will have a very different outcome from a situation where the red team is down just 10 losses.

Almost none of this has an impact on Tory seat numbers.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble


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