Back at GE2010 polls from the second half of Feb 2010 proved to be pretty good pointers to the result

Back at GE2010 polls from the second half of Feb 2010 proved to be pretty good pointers to the result

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Will the same be repeated this May?

With so many polls coming out as we get closer to the big day I thought it might be useful to check back at the regular pollsters from the last election to see how their surveys from the second half of February compared with the actual result.

The YouGov daily poll started at this time and for that I have taken and average.

I have only included the established pollsters from then which are following the same broadly methodological approach now.

Looking at the chart the February 2010 performance proved to be pretty good predictors to what happened on May 6th 2010 given, of course, standard margins of errors.

Of course the past is no predictor to future performance.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble


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