In 2010 CON 11.4% ahead: Latest Opinium has them 2% behind

That’s a massive gap to close in a part of the UK where 96% of the LAB-CON battlegrounds are.

To work out swing you look the change in party figures from the last election an divide by 2. So here LAB is up 6.9% with Opinium in England and the Tories down 6.5%. So that makes a swing of 6.7%

On UNS this would give LAB enough seats to offset likely Scottish losses and be very close to a majority.

LAB ahead again in tonight's YouGov for S Times Con 32, Lab 33, LD 7, UKIP 15, GRN 8

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 7, 2015

The last 15 published polls have seen 10 LAB leads 4 CON-LAB level pegging 1 CON lead

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 7, 2015

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB