Those people who bet on "other" with Hills on this market in July 2012 must now be looking forward to a big payout. pic.twitter.com/N1DQaTFref

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2015

In view of the way politics have developed in the past six months those who bet on “other” in the William Hill “Composition of Net Government” market in July 2012 have started to think that there’s a nice pay-out to come in May. I’ve got several bets on at 12/1. The screenshot was taken after the “other” price was tightened to 8/1.

Given that a majority Labour or Tory government looks quite remote and a simple coalition on the 2010 model might be difficult to achieve I’ve been contacted by some PBers about how the bookmaker will regard a bet on “other” because it has to be read in the context of the other options on the market at the time.

This was my exchange of emails with Graham Sharp of William Hills.

“to Graham
I’m getting a inquiries from people who bet on “other” in your composition of next government market in July 2012. The screen-grab below was published on my site on July 12th 20012.

Given the way politics has been totally transformed in past two and a half years you have a lot more options up.

“Other” from then looks like now like a very attractive bet. Can we assume that if the outcome is not one covered on the July 2012 list then it will be settled as a winner?

It would be great to meet up again before the action starts.

Reply

Graham Sharpe

to me
Mike – I can see no reason why ‘OTHER’ wouldn’t mean exactly what it said at that time – any option other than those described………..

It’s great to have clarification.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB