Interesting new leaders’ betting market – but where’s the value?
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— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2015
Which of ED/Nick/Dave/Nige/Alex will do worst in their seats?
Which leader'll do worst in seat at GE15 – AS/DC/EdM/NC/NF ?
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— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2015
This clearly is a competition between Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage and my inclination would be the latter. Thanet South looks as though it will be a tighter contest than Sheffield Hallam.
Which of ED/Nick/Dave/Nige/Alex will do best in their seats?
Which leader'll do best in seat at GE15 – AS/DC/EdM/NC/NF ?
Betfair Sportsbook http://t.co/kjmGcRoaeb pic.twitter.com/nzmjt2fFFn
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2015
This is a hard one because nobody really knows what the scale of the SNP surge will be by the time we get to May 7th. If it is on the lines of the recent Ipsos-MORI poll then Salmond, with his high name recognition will do very well.
The Cameron price looks value given he got 58.8% in Witney at GE10. But he’s very vulnerable to UKIP and other parties that he might well get below 50%. Last month’s Doncaster North poll from Lord Ashcroft had EdM on 54%.