Pricing in the Ed factor – a negative for Labour but how big a negative?
EdM on the Andrew Marr show pic.twitter.com/gArzupDgLA
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015
The big unknown of this campaign & maybe we won’t find out till May 8th
It is said that a key strategy of the Tories in the coming months will be to constantly remind voters that Ed Miliband is LAB leader and that if the party did win the election then he could end up as PM. I am sure that that is the right approach.
Just looking at the ratings, however the question is asked whichever pollster you choose, Ed trails Dave by a huge margin. Miliband is a drag on his party and the Tories will be doing everything to exploit what must be LAB’s greatest weakness.
Because of the complexity of the current multi-party environment the message will be used selectively. So few 2010 CON voters have gone to LAB that there are very few that they can attract back.
Much of the blue hopes in the coming months are tied up with the switchers – those who’ve gone from CON to UKIP and those who voted Lib Dem in 2010 and who are now saying LAB. Maybe some of the former can be tempted by fears of PM Ed and maybe doubts can be raised in the minds of some the latter that they choose Green instead.
This election is going to be as much about trying to erode she support base of your opponents as securing voters for your party.
So what is going to happen? I don’t think anybody really knows and can predict things with any real confidence. Ed Miliband is undoubtedly a negative for Labour but it is hard to measure how much.