Main party switchers to UKIP in the key battlegrounds represent just on 11% of the overall vote
Putting UKIP’s polling into perspective
Interesting that the two peaks came after the UKIP success in the Euros and then just after the Douglas Carswell defection.
These figures are quite a bit lower than the normal shares for the purples that we see. This is because they are confined to 2010 main party voters only. Balance of support came from OTH or “did not vote”.
Secondly they are from the key CON-LAB marginals where you’d expect UKIP to be squeezed a bit.
The big question is how much more these figures can be squeezed in the next four months and who’ll benefit.