The latest Lord Ashcroft marginals poll is out

The latest Lord Ashcroft marginals poll is out

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The latest round of Lord Ashcroft marginal polling is out. He says Two types of constituencies feature in my last round of marginals polling for 2014. First, the next tranche of seats the Conservatives are defending from Labour; second, a selection of seats where Labour may be under threat from UKIP. I have also returned to the solitary Green constituency, Brighton Pavilion.

I have just been on the phone to Mike, and his initial cursory thought that this is bad news for Labour, as the general trend is the Con to Lab swing in the marginals is getting smaller, as the below graph shows. Is this the famed swingback taking place?

Lord Ashcroft concurs with Mike’s assessment, he says “Moderate Tory cheer and a fright for Labour in my final marginals poll of 2014” He adds though Unfortunately for the Tories my constituency polls have so far found Labour ahead in 39. However, some of the margins look very slim, not just over the Tories but over UKIP. Moreover, we have not yet looked in detail at Scottish constituencies, which could potentially change the equation dramatically. My fieldwork north of the border will begin in the New Year.

As ever, Lord Ashcroft reminds us, a poll is a snapshot and not a prediction.

Looking at the Lab held seats, the initial voting intention question makes good reading for UKIP, as they are ahead in 3 and tied in 1, however on the second question, Labour hold all four but not as comfortably as you’d expect the main opposition to do so. The 13.5% Lab to UKIP swing shows, as evidenced most memorably in Heywood and Middleton, UKIP can be a threat to Labour as well the Tories.

For the Greens, they are holding Brighton Pavillion, on the second question, quite comfortably, but losing on the first question. Overall the second quesiton should be a better predictor than the first question, as it refers to how you would vote in your own specific constituency.

TSE

The Ipsos-Mori phone poll is out, I plan to do a separate thread on that this afternoon.

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