Ipsos Mori sees the Tories retain their 3% lead

Ipsos Mori sees the Tories retain their 3% lead

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Whilst the headline figures appear to be the same as last month for the Tories and Labour, what will delight the Tories is prior to the certainty to vote filter being applied, last month the Tories and Labour were tied, this month, the Tories lead by 4% .

Before the Tories get too excited, this poll sees them polling just over their 1997 nadir, and given Labour are polling close to their 2010 level, it could well be that the next general election is a case of the resistible force meeting a moveable object.

As noted yesterday, there’s been a fall in economic optimism, but unlike ICM the Tories haven’t seen their vote share fall. I suspect the the real polling position is a Labour lead of somewhere between zero and two percent, and the ICM and Ipsos-Mori polls are the outliers at both ends of the spectrum.

Of the three phone polls this week, have had the Greens on 2%, 5% and 9%. Sometimes this political betting game can be quite difficult when we have such variance.

 

For me the most interesting polling find from this is Nigel Farage’s ratings have a fallen by a net 14 points in a month, it could be the negative publicity UKIP have experienced over the those vying to be the UKIP candidate in Basildon and the debate over his comments on public breastfeeding. To put this fall into context, David Cameron’s ratings fell by 15 points in the immediate aftermath of the revelations about Milly Dowler’s voicemail.

Often a significant fall or rise leader’s ratings can be a harbinger for that party’s VI further down the line. We will have to wait until the New Year to see if this is merely a blip or a trend. But before Kippers get too despondent, Farage is still the best performing party leader (or technically speaking, the least worst) Labour supporters will be happy to see their man is ahead of Nick Clegg this month.

 TSE

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