On the morning of Osborne’s big speech the GE15 betting gets even tighter. Now almost level-pegging
Most seats betting
On the morning of Osbo's big speech CON gets tighter in GE most seats betting & now almost level with LAB pic.twitter.com/2J3w02gyqx
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 3, 2014
Overall majority betting
Best overall majority odds now just 1/2 in GE 15 outcome betting. LAB maj just has edge on CON pic.twitter.com/3BnVQ0lxcN
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 3, 2014
But it’s Scotland not the economy that’s influencing the markets
As we face the most uncertain general election in at least a generation there’s not much you can glean from the betting markets about what’s going to happen except that few are risking their cash on one of the two big parties securing a majority.
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The huge uncertainty created by the SNP surge in Scotland is the major driver. If the SNP (6 MPs at GE10) can really take the lion’s share north of the border from LAB (41 Scots MPs at GE10) then we are in uncharted territory.
The standard seat predictors that give a rough estimate of MPs from GB vote shares simply cannot be relied on in the new situation.
We know from the 140+ single constituency polls that Lord Ashcroft has carried out since May that LAB has been doing OK picking up most CON targets up to CON GE10 majorities of about 7%. Problem is that most of these could be offset by Scottish losses if the Scotland-only polling carries forward to May 7th.
Lord A has said that Scottish seat polls are in the offing but we don’t know when. I really want to see what his polling approach with the two stage voting question produces north of the border. Is there an incumbency factor and will there be tactical voting? That has to be examined at the seat level.
And so today we have Osborne’s final autumn statement and big economic announcement ahead of the election. Will that change the political weather? Hard to stay but this is a key moment on the road to polling day.