CON GE15 prices moves up because Rochester wasn’t as bad as many in the blue team feared
Tories helped by UKIP/Farage’s poor expectation management
Mood on spread markets is that Rochester good for CON now just 3 seats behind.
Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR pic.twitter.com/9v0QsDcpF1
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 21, 2014
This morning’s movement means that the CON price has advanced by 7 seats since SPIN opened its market 11 days ago.
The money’s now going on CON to retake the seat next May
William Hill http://t.co/orbZ1ewJDz now make CON odds on 5/6 favourite to win Rochester back at GE15. This morning they were 2/1
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 21, 2014
PaddyPower http://t.co/49a6vU4VyB now make CON 2/5 favourite to win back Rochester in May. So you'd have to bet £50 to win £20
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 21, 2014
Harry Hayfield’s round-up of all yesterday’s results
Bramhall South and Woodford on Stockport (Con Defence)
Result: Conservative 2,080 (53% +8%), Liberal Democrats 1,502 (38% +5%), Green 197 (5%, no candidate last time), Labour 132 (3% -6%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 468 (13%) on a swing of 1.5% from Lib Dem to Con
Uplands on Swansea (Lab Defence)
Result: Independent 671 (33%, no candidate in 2012), Labour 533 (26% -18%), Liberal Democrat 215 (11% -23%), Green 179 (9% -1%), Swansea Independents 158 (8%, no candidate in 2012), Conservative 154 (8% -4%), Plaid 104 (5%, no candidate in 2012), TUSC 31 (2%, no candidate in 2012)
Independent GAIN from Labour with a majority of 138 (7%)
Peninsula on Medway (UKIP defence from Con defection)
Result: UKIP 2,850 (48%), Conservative 1,965 (33%), Labour 716 (12%), Green 314 (5%), Lib Dem 60 (1%)
UKIP HOLD (from defection) with a majority of 885 (15%)
Rochester and Strood (UKIP defence from Con defection)
Result: UKIP 16,867 (42%, no candidate in 2010), Conservative 13,947 (35% -14%), Labour 6,713 (17% -11%), Green 1,692 (4% +2%), Liberal Democrats 349 (1% -15%), Independents 188 (0%), Loony 151 (0%), People Before Profit 69 (0%), Britain First 56 (0%), Patriotic Socialists 33 (0%)
UKIP HOLD (from defection) with a majority of 2,920 (7%)