At last. The GE15 Commons seats spread betting opens with this from SportingIndex http://t.co/ERIjhtuNTk pic.twitter.com/jgmIA7W0FX

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2014

Mid points on the SportingIndex http://t.co/ERIjhtuNTk Commons seats spreads LAB 294 seats CON 276 LD 28 UKIP 9 SNP 21

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2014

Now the betting can get really serious

For me political betting is about the spreads where things like commons seats are traded like stocks and share and where the more you are right the more you win.

For novices. On the morning of election day in 2010 you could have bought LAB at 222 seats with SportingIndex. They got 258 seats which mean that those who’s put place a bet at that level won the difference multiplied by their stake. In this case 36. Alas losses are calculated in the same way.

For some reason the spread firms have delayed getting their markets up this time and I am absolutely delighted that this popular betting option is now available.

The interesting, and potentially very rewarding bets, are buying/selling UKIP or SNP seats. I think that both are on the high side but I need to do some more analysis.

The Monday polls – UPDATED to include ICM

Main moves in Guardian ICM poll – LAB down GRN up. pic.twitter.com/ZGipuW8j9H

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2014

It's almost no change in this week's @LordAshcroft national phone poll. CON still 1% ahead. See details & trend chart pic.twitter.com/n6Eyc3NCSV

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2014

LAB maintains its Populus lead. No EdM effect Con 34 (+1) Lab 36 (+1) LD 8 (-1) UKIP 13 (-1) Greens 4

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2014