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Month: September 2014

YouGov and Survation phone polls are out – It is still too close to call.

YouGov and Survation phone polls are out – It is still too close to call.

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YouGov sees no change whilst Survation’s phone poll sees No’s lead cut by 2%, all the final polls have No ahead.If no wins, it’ll be the oldies and women that wins it for them Final YouGov #indyref poll has no ahead No 52 (nc) Yes 48 (nc) — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 17, 2014 New @Survation #indyref phone poll sees No 53 (-1) Yes 47 (+1) http://t.co/QYlhTN4gx6 — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 17, 2014 YouGov/Times: The 25 to 29 age…

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Ipsos-Mori becomes the latest pollster to show the indyref being too close to call

Ipsos-Mori becomes the latest pollster to show the indyref being too close to call

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New @IpsosMORI indyref phone poll Yes 49% (+7) No 51% (-7) http://t.co/ocWIgiYXQr FIeldwork monday and tuesday — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 17, 2014 The changes are since the last Ipsos-Mori poll which was conducted at the start of August, it was before any of the debates, so it is coming into line with the other pollsters, given their track record at the 2011 Holyrood election, it will cause great alarm at Better Together, this is a phone poll, and…

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Enter the PB Indyref prediction competition as Panelbase becomes the fourth pollster to have it No 52, Yes 48

Enter the PB Indyref prediction competition as Panelbase becomes the fourth pollster to have it No 52, Yes 48

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Welcome to PB’s Indyref prediction competition, you need to enter the % Yes will achieve, and the % turnout. Shadsy of Ladbrokes has generously donated £50 of free bets to the winner who gets the yes percentage spot on, or nearest to it. Please click here to submit your entry. Entries should be to two decimal places. Please note that you will need to have a Ladbrokes account or be ready to open one if you win. This means that…

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Corporeal suggests that political punters should be rooting against the Pollsters

Corporeal suggests that political punters should be rooting against the Pollsters

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Confusion might be best for those wanting a bet Here at PB we generally like pollsters (especially if they drop by to read and boost traffic numbers). I’m sure many of them are lovely people (a couple have even retweeted me occasionally) but it’s mostly the polls they produce that we like (sometimes with the slight undercurrent of getting a fix supplied). As a site where we mix polling and betting good data on likely outcomes is valuable as well…

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Four final polls published, two more to come, and it looks as though NO might have just edged it

Four final polls published, two more to come, and it looks as though NO might have just edged it

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#IndyRef YES slips to a 19.2% chance on Betfair after final polls from ICM/Opinium/Survation all report 4% NO leads pic.twitter.com/LcU3wR3Ods — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 17, 2014 Certainly that’s how punters are seeing it Yesterday the other bit of Betfair, the one that operates like a traditional bookie with the firm fixing the odds, announced that it was paying out on NO winning bets. This part of the firm accounts for a very small slice of its business and serious…

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IndyRef – we move into the closing day of the campaign

IndyRef – we move into the closing day of the campaign

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Wednesday's Independent front page – "A nation divided against itself" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #indref pic.twitter.com/zg36ji6Uoq — Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) September 16, 2014 DAILY MAIL FRONT PAGE: 'The Seriously Nasty Party' #skypapers pic.twitter.com/Qhcp6KL4CE — Sky News (@SkyNews) September 16, 2014

ICM…..Opinium…..Survation….rolling blog on tonight’s final polls

ICM…..Opinium…..Survation….rolling blog on tonight’s final polls

This is what the ballot paper looks like (vis @faisalislam ) pic.twitter.com/D95tRyK1hE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 16, 2014 Big news is that all 3 polls have same figures YES 48 NO 52 Graphic showing full details of the Survation/Mail IndyRef poll pic.twitter.com/kdb4z3jlBD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 16, 2014 YES price moving out on the Betfair exchange. Two hours ago a £100 winning YES bet would have produced a £450 profit. Now that is £490 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 16,…

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