New @IpsosMORI indyref phone poll Yes 49% (+7) No 51% (-7) http://t.co/ocWIgiYXQr FIeldwork monday and tuesday

— The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 17, 2014

The changes are since the last Ipsos-Mori poll which was conducted at the start of August, it was before any of the debates, so it is coming into line with the other pollsters, given their track record at the 2011 Holyrood election, it will cause great alarm at Better Together, this is a phone poll, and also has the same lead the ICM phone had last week.

As far as I know, there’s just one more indyref poll out tonight, and that’s the YouGov for The Times and The Sun.

Looking at the below graph, here’s what the latest poll, note, the YouGov figure in this from last week’s poll, we can see how close it is. Where it says (o) that is that firm’s online poll, and where it says (p) that is that firm’s phone poll.

So who does this overall closeness in the polling favour? My head says, given the various leads across the pollsters No have with the older generation, that will see No win, my heart says, the Yes GOTV will see Yes win.

TSE

Don’t forget to enter PB’s indyref prediction competition, where the winner gets £50 in free bets courtesy of Ladbrokes, closing time for entries is 8am BST on Thursday.