UKIP sees a six point surge with Opinium

 

The usual caveats apply, this is but one poll, we need to see other polling to see if this UKIP surge is occurring or not. My own thought is that, this is more a return to the status quo for Opinium with regards to UKIP, their last poll, a fortnight ago, had UKIP down to their lowest point since February 2013, and that didn’t feel right. This UKIP’s highest score with Opinium since May 2013.

This is only the eighth poll out 1,611 polls in this parliament to have the combined Con and Lab score to be 60 or below.

The Lib Dems will be delighted to be polling in double digits, with the pollster that has consistently given them some of their lowest scores in this parliament. The fact the Lib Dems are polling double digits is considered good news (by me at least), probably explains the dire polling situation the Lib Dems find themselves in.

Putting this poll into electoral calculus, the result would be a Labour majority of 36, and zero UKIP MPs, as first past the post, and UNS will theoretically disadvantage UKIP.

New @OpiniumResearch VI Poll Lab 32 (-3) Con 28 (-4) LD 10 (+3) UKIP 21 (+6) Put through electoral calculus pic.twitter.com/YQXiyve6zT

— The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) August 16, 2014

You can get odds of 20/1 of UKIP polling between 20% and 25% next year, and 5/4 on UKIP not win a seat next year.

TSE