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Month: July 2014

The Lib Dems drop 4 to just 7% in today’s Ashcroft phone poll. Earlier, though, Populus had them up 1

The Lib Dems drop 4 to just 7% in today’s Ashcroft phone poll. Earlier, though, Populus had them up 1

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More details from the @LordAshcroft poll pic.twitter.com/kPSMumpyJ7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 14, 2014 Another poll to worry the LD leadership The LD 7% the the lowest recorded since the Ashcroft weekly phone poll began in May. What’s is startling is the size of the fall from 11% to just 7% in just a week. This is greater than the margin of error. Earlier the Populus Monday poll showed no decline in the LD share which it had up 1%…

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Why Blairites like John Rentoul have got to stop looking at GE2015 through the prism of 1997

Why Blairites like John Rentoul have got to stop looking at GE2015 through the prism of 1997

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From the recent @LordAshcroft CON-LAB marginals poll: Miliband's most enthusiastic backers – LD-LAB switchers pic.twitter.com/NJ6f8TaN7W — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 14, 2014 It’s a totally different election with very different dynamics There’s no doubt that Tony Blair’s GE1997 victory, coming as it did after four election defeats over the previous 18 years, was a stunning success. Blair did it by reinventing his party so it would appeal to large swaithes of voters who never before had done anything other than…

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NO moves up 4 to take a 14% lead in latest ICM Scottish IndyRef YES poll

NO moves up 4 to take a 14% lead in latest ICM Scottish IndyRef YES poll

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What can YES do to reverse the trend? There’s further polling confirmation this morning that support for a YES vote in the Scottish Independence referendum on September 18th is stalling with the July survey of voters north of the border by ICM for Scotland on Sunday. The trend is in line with the recent YouGov, TNS-BMRB and Survation polls which all reported that the gap was remaining or getting wider. In June ICM had, once you’ve excluded the don’t knows,…

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The GE2015 campaign will come down to the party with the weirdo leader versus the party that’s still toxic

The GE2015 campaign will come down to the party with the weirdo leader versus the party that’s still toxic

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Get ready for what’s likely to be the most negative campaign ever It’s become the norm in recent general elections that a large part of the campaign is fought on almost totally negative grounds and we should expect nothing different in the run up to May 7th. Labour believes that the Tory brand remains toxic and a huge turn-off to key segments of voters. In the marginals the message will be that only LAB can stop CON. We saw this…

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David Herdson on what what might happen to upset the consensus on the GE2015 outcome

David Herdson on what what might happen to upset the consensus on the GE2015 outcome

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We should thinking more about the range of possibilities I was struck at the politicalbetting meet in Ilkley on Monday how much consensus there was about the likely result of the next election.  The great majority expected Labour as the largest party in another hung parliament.  That’s the view of the betting markets too: Labour is best priced at 9/10 with bwin to win most seats (more generally 5/6 or 4/5), while the Tories are odds against only with Ladbrokes…

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Local By-Election Results with news of a Lib Dem gain from CON in a seat where they were 4th

Local By-Election Results with news of a Lib Dem gain from CON in a seat where they were 4th

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Penistone West on Barnsley (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 772 (31% -17%), Conservatives 719 (29% -17%), UKIP 622 (25%), Independent 348 (14%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 53 (2%) on no swing from Lab to Con since 2012 Boughton (Lab Defence) and Winnington and Castle (Lab Defence) on Cheshire West and Chester Boughton Result: Labour 614 (45% -7%), Conservatives 469 (34% -6%), UKIP 131 (10%), Green 86 (6%), Liberal Democrats 70 (5% -3%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 145…

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New IndyRef poll from Survation sees more Scottish people making up their minds but overall picture staying the same

New IndyRef poll from Survation sees more Scottish people making up their minds but overall picture staying the same

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Some bookies tighten the YES betting price There’s been a flurry of betting activity on the IndyRef overnight with William Hill reporting a fair bit of money going on YES which has resulted in them tightening the price from 5/1 to 9/2. Maybe this was driven in part by news filtering out of the latest polling, from Survation, which has the big picture remaining the same but with fewer people now saying that they don’t know. The pollster, alongside ICM…

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