Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’re Under Pressure tonight, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker,  why not delurk, you’ll find posting on PB A Kind of Magic, The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) PMQs: Miliband sends his MPs off for the summer, each with their own personal rain cloud. Cameron misrepresented Harman’s…
Evening Standard reporting Ipsos-MORI that has Gove the "most unpopular politician in Britain" http://t.co/P8IOVtTwBu pic.twitter.com/0LhC4dNTGe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 16, 2014 This is from Joe Murphy’s Standard report:- ” Ipsos MORI found just 22 per cent of the public say they like Mr Gove, while 54 per cent dislike him. A derisory 11 per cent think he has what it takes to be a prime minister, while 66 per cent say he does not. The findings come from the final…
Nicky Morgan's Loughborough is a key marginal which on uniform swing goes LAB even if CON ahead on votes nationally pic.twitter.com/yAA3hSUQln — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 16, 2014 Ladbrokes make it LAB 10/11 and CON 10/11 The above table is based on the Electoral Calculus projection of what happens on national vote shares of CON 36, LAB 35.6, LD, 12, UKIP 9. The seat highlighted is Nicky Morgan’s Loughborough which as can be seen would go LAB even though EdM’s…
I understand Osborne opposed Gove move but dire opinion polling presented by Lynton Crosby of MG's standing with teachers forced change. — Tim Montgomerie (@TimMontgomerie) July 15, 2014 This matches YouGov polling pre-GE2010 and 2014 Just for @MSmithsonPB – proportion of teachers in each constituency in England & Wales, overlaid by Labour targets: pic.twitter.com/bPrwTXDVyf — Election-data (@election_data) July 15, 2014
John McTernan sums this up brilliantly Theme of the #reshuffle is weakness. Teachers hate Gove; green lobby hate Paterson; euro-sceptics hate Clarke/Hague. All shall have scalps. — John McTernan (@johnmcternan) July 15, 2014 Liz Truss promotion to cabinet almost 2 years after this @NewStatesman cover tipped her as Iron Lady 2.0 pic.twitter.com/ICMQsSgFKe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2014
The Ladbrokes 14/1 looks good value The big winner in the reshuffle is, undoubtedly, the new Foreign Secretary, Philip Hammond, who, with Theresa May, have been my long term bets at longish odds for Cameron’s successor. I got him originally at 41/1 and overnight I’ve put more on at 16.5 on Betfair and 14/1 with Ladbrokes This looks a great price for someone who now occupies one of the three great offices of State and would be in an ideal…
Looks like the big political news of the day isn’t the Blues taking the lead with the gold standard of UK polling, but the reshuffle David Cameron is currently undertaking. The big news is William Hague standing down as Foreign Secretary. 1/2 I'd like to pay an enormous tribute to @WilliamJHague who is standing down as an MP at the next election. — David Cameron (@David_Cameron) July 14, 2014 2/2 Until then, I'm delighted he'll remain my de facto political…
Tories take lead – Ukip down 7 – in latest ICM/Guardian poll pic.twitter.com/abv7Nah6BT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 14, 2014 ICM was the most accurate pollster at GE1997, GE2001, GE2010 and in the AV referendum — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 14, 2014 The ICM/Guardian poll is out and the big move is Ukip falling by 7 points on the month. This has helped boost the Tories who are now 1% ahead of LAB. The LDs, meanwhile, are up 2 at…