Tonight’s polls are changes within the margin of error, though the Lib Dems will be delighted to be up by 2% in both polls.

Opinium for the Observer shows

Labour lead at 4pts in latest Opinium/Obs poll. Lab 34 (-1), Con 30 (+1), Ukip 17 (-1), Lib Dems 9 (+2). Cam and Mili personal ratings up.

— Toby Helm (@tobyhelm) July 19, 2014

The ComRes supplementaries make for interesting (if depressing) reading for Dave and Ed.

On the reshuffle doesn’t make for good reading for David Cameron.

Most people, 56 per cent, said women were promoted for “presentational reasons” and only 24 per cent said women were promoted “on merit”.Overall, only 20 per cent said the reshuffle improved my view of the Conservative Party, while 54 per cent said it had not.

For Ed Miliband the supplementaries won’t make for pleasant reading.

Ed Miliband cannot draw comfort from the survey: just 21 per cent of voters expect the Labour leader to be Prime Minister after the next election, compared to 31 per cent who said the same in May 2013. The proportion of voters who believe Mr Miliband will not be walking into Downing Street is at its highest, 44 per cent, in May 2013, the figure was 37%.

The full ComRes data tables are available here.

Meanwhile Lord Ashcroft tweets

Just finishing the field work on a 14000 sample of marginal seats held by the Tories….already some surprises….all revealed next week..

— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 19, 2014

UPDATE

YouGov/Sunday Times CON 32% LAB 37% LDEM 9% UKIP 13%

— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 19, 2014

TSE