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Month: May 2014

The second Lord Ashcroft poll has Labour six ahead

The second Lord Ashcroft poll has Labour six ahead

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Labour takes a 6 point lead with Lord Ashcroft’s polling.   Lord Ashcroft poll has published his second weekly phone poll on Westminster VI and it great news for the Red team As the good Lord himself says wisely This looks like quite a reversal in the week since the inaugural Ashcroft National Poll found the first Tory lead since 2012. What is going on? Ten general election voting intention surveys have been published between last Monday’s poll and today’s. Of those…

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Populus becomes the third pollster in a week to show the Tories ahead

Populus becomes the third pollster in a week to show the Tories ahead

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This morning’s Populus online poll became the third pollster in a week to show The Conservatives ahead, it is also the first online pollster to show the Blues ahead since March 2012. The two most interesting phenomenon of this period of Conservatives ahead in the polling is i) That is happening in the run-up to the last set of elections before next year’s General Election.  ii) The Conservatives are only 1 to 3 % down on their General election score,…

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Why Ukip will stay odds-on to win most votes at EP2014 even if none the polls have them in first place

Why Ukip will stay odds-on to win most votes at EP2014 even if none the polls have them in first place

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The bookie view of political betting In the past fortnight the political specialist at Ladbrokes, Shadsy, has launched a blog called “The Political Bookie – NEWS FROM LADBROKES’ POLITICAL ODDS DESK”. It is turning out to be a fascinating read providing great insights in political betting from the bookie perspective. One recent article was on Thursday’s battle for the London Borough of Richmond where Ladbrokes were initially offering 20/1 that the LDs would take control and how this has tightened…

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Two of the latest EP2014 polls have just 4% separating top three: The third has a range of 15%

Two of the latest EP2014 polls have just 4% separating top three: The third has a range of 15%

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I’m looking forward to the post election polling inquest I cannot recall a previous election where there was such a division between the pollsters. Some of them are not getting this right but which ones? In the past week all three of the top parties have had a lead – the biggest being the massive 11% UKIP recorded by ComRes online which totally limits its published numbers to those 100% certain to vote. Given measuring turnout is so important I’m…

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After last month’s IndyRef scare the May ICM Scottish poll sees YES down to an eight month low

After last month’s IndyRef scare the May ICM Scottish poll sees YES down to an eight month low

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New ICM #IndyRef poll sees sharp reverse for YES. Yes 34 -5 No 46 +4 DK 20 +1 http://t.co/Rrty4rvWRd pic.twitter.com/oSjVH20ga8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 18, 2014 This’ll ease the jitters in the NO camp Probably the most influential poll over the past month was the ICM on;one Scottish survey for Scotland on Sunday which had the NO lead down to just 3%. This was the best position for YES in any media commissioned poll and has set the narrative in both Edinburgh…

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The night of the crazy EP2014 polling: ComRes has Ukip 11% ahead – ICM puts them third

The night of the crazy EP2014 polling: ComRes has Ukip 11% ahead – ICM puts them third

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ComRes online EP2014 poll has Ukip 11% ahead UKIP 35%+1 LAB 24%= CON 20% -2 GRN 7% +2 LD 6% -2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 17, 2014 ICM online for S Telegraph has Ukip in 3rd place CON 26%+4 LAB 29%-1 LD 8%= UKIP 25%-2 Changes on last ICM online Euros poll — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 17, 2014 The differences between the two polls are massive and it is not easy finding an obvious explanation. A lot of this comes down to how the two firms…

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By my reckoning there should be at least three EP2014 polls as well as Westminster ones overnight

By my reckoning there should be at least three EP2014 polls as well as Westminster ones overnight

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I think that we are going to see ComRes for the Indy on Sunday/S Mirror, ICM online for the Sunday Telegraph and the usual YouGov for the Sunday Times. This post will be updated later. Mike Smithson 2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble Follow @MSmithsonPB

EdM might just be susceptible to a decapitation strategy in Doncaster N

EdM might just be susceptible to a decapitation strategy in Doncaster N

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How Labour could win next year without Miliband becoming PM This time next week, we’ll have the results from the local elections, though not yet the Euros.  As a whole, they’ll tell us a lot about how the land lies going into the last year of the parliament.  One set of contests worth keeping an eye on is that in Ed Miliband’s back yard. On the face of it, the idea that Miliband could lose his seat, even as Labour…

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