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Month: May 2014

A masterclass in how not to conduct a political assasination

A masterclass in how not to conduct a political assasination

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New PB thread on Lord Oakeshott’s polls. http://t.co/5G50n29GOC pic.twitter.com/dXXotaSaKi — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) May 28, 2014   Lord Oakeshott resigned today from the Lib Dems following the publication of those polls. He said “I am sure the party is heading for disaster if it keeps Nick Clegg; and I must not get in the way of the many brave Liberal Democrats fighting for change” It also emerged there were other polls, that unsurprisingly showed Danny Alexander losing his seat, but…

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Last Thursday’s local elections: Andy JS’s annual compilation of the actual vote totals from every ward that was fought

Last Thursday’s local elections: Andy JS’s annual compilation of the actual vote totals from every ward that was fought

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UKIP winning almost one in six of all voters Thanks to Andy JS who has done a brilliant job collecting and recording the data from each of the thousands of individual seats that were fought on May 22nd. This is the second year he has done this and provides a vital resource. Generally he has had to go into every local authority website and transpose the detailed results from each individual ward onto his spreadsheet. These figures differ considerably from…

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Lib Dem voters sticking with Nick Clegg according to new YouGov-Times poll

Lib Dem voters sticking with Nick Clegg according to new YouGov-Times poll

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After several days of pressure on Nick Clegg new YouGov polling for the Times suggests that most current party supporters want him to remain as leader. Even amongst those who voted for the party in 2010 he has a lead. The point, of course, is that those still supporting the party are likely to be loyalists. Amongst all sampled, however, 42% say he shouldn’t remain with 30% saying he should. As to whether the party would do better being led…

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Polling Round Up

Polling Round Up

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Lord Ashcroft’s latest weekly phone poll is out. @LordAshcroft latest Westminster VI poll, changes since last week Con 29 (nc), Lab 31 (-4), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 17 (+3) — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) May 27, 2014   Populus have published their bi-weekly online poll New Populus VI: Lab 36 (=); Cons 34 (=); LD 9 (=); UKIP 14 (=); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://t.co/GvE36tpnBc — Populus (@PopulusPolls) May 27, 2014 Meanwhile Ipsos-Mori have some polling out, here are the…

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Guest Slot: Rod Crosby: The bell tolls for Labour and Miliband

Guest Slot: Rod Crosby: The bell tolls for Labour and Miliband

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Last week Labour beat the Tories in the local elections by just 1%, according to the Rallings and Thrasher NEV (national equivalent voteshare) calculation. This is the last set of locals before the general election. Is there anything we can divine from this performance? Yes, it looks like Labour will be soundly defeated next year. The following graph tells the tale (general elections bordered in white). We see that, going back to 1979, no party with such a minuscule lead…

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Someone or maybe a group of Lib Dems are spending serious money trying to oust Clegg

Someone or maybe a group of Lib Dems are spending serious money trying to oust Clegg

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The significance of private ICM polling on Clegg not just bad numbers but that it was commissioned by an LD supporter pic.twitter.com/ddaM77207O — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 27, 2014 But who is behind it and what’s the next step? Hopefully later today ICM will release the detailed data from the private polling that’s splashed by the Guardian this morning. The broad message of what’s been leaked is that the party stands to do worse in four key seats that it…

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Leaked private polling shows Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam and finishing third behind the Tories!

Leaked private polling shows Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam and finishing third behind the Tories!

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New PB thread on leaked private ICM polling showing Nick Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam. http://t.co/c8kw0erFTJ pic.twitter.com/f698czzOzf — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) May 26, 2014 If there’s one thing that gets people like us excited and interested is a leaked internal/private polling, especially ones conducted by ICM. The polling finds The electoral oblivion apparently confronting the Liberal Democrats as led by Nick Clegg was underscored on Monday by leaked opinion polls in four seats showing that the party will be wiped out. Commissioned by a…

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As long as Paddy Ashdown’s on side then Nick Clegg’s position is secure

As long as Paddy Ashdown’s on side then Nick Clegg’s position is secure

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Nick Clegg looking quite emotional on Sky. pic.twitter.com/V5G19ya7ci — Helen Lewis (@helenlewis) May 26, 2014 The former leader has the power to stop regicide Back in September 2012 at the Lib Dem Brighton conference Clegg announced the appointment of ex-leader, Paddy Ashdown as head of the party’s 2015 general election campaign. This has been discussed in terms of his ability to reach Labour tactical voters who are central to the party holding onto those seats where the Tories are in…

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