The Tories are ahead in this poll for the Sun by Survation, but down nearly 18% since the general election, but with a strong campaign, I can see either UKIP or Labour winning, the fact that UKIP are up over 24% since the General Election, compared to 4.7% that Labour are up since the election, shows the momentum is with UKIP.

The normal caveats that this just one poll, this raises an interesting dilemma for Labour, and their supporters?

Do they vote Labour with the prize of winning the seat. It would do a lot for Ed and Labour’s nerves if they could win a seat that Labour won under the Blair landslide (even if the boundaries have changed since then)

Or do they vote tactically for UKIP?

Tough times if you’re part of the tactical voting Tory alliance, we will find out next week.

You can back Labour at 33/1 and UKIP at 3/1, I will avail myself of these odds shortly, if they are still available.

TSE